2007 Fantasy Baseball Busts by Aaron Baker

Here are 5 players I think fantasy gamers should avoid in 2007.

Eric Chavez - Reasons to avoid Eric Chavez in 2007 are very simple and I’ve said it for the last few years to friends among our baseball discussions. First, is Eric Chavez’s determination to avoid shoulder surgery. It has nothing to do with losing the Big Hurt and the fallout being Chavez will lose out on good pitches to hit. Or the fact that Chavez hits in a park that repressed homeruns by 14% in 2006. Chavez seemingly can’t stay healthy and every season it seems that it’s the nagging shoulder keeps him from being a great 3B stat producer for fantasy owners whose has lost out two out of the last three seasons with Chavez manning their fantasy hot corner. His shoulder is said to be chronically injured and with his refusal to get surgery it can be assumed that he will struggle again with the bat in 2007. Granted he had other injuries during the 2006 season, but I view the shoulder as the main reason other injuries arise because he has to compensate all other baseball motions because of the shoulder. Two out of the last three years Chavez has played less than 140 games. Chavez had his lowest homerun total (22) this past season since 1999 (13). His 72 RBI, lowest since 1999 (50). I can go on and on. Chavez’s average (.241) lowest since 1999 (.247). Basically, Chavez had his worst season since 1999.

Mark Prior – When healthy, and that’s been a BIG when, Prior is one of the best pitchers in the game. However, Prior has had a mixture of bad luck injuries and abuse over the past few years. Prior made only 9 starts in 2006 finishing with a 1-6 record, 7.21 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 38 strikeouts in 43.2 innings. Prior’s K per 9 was pretty good at 7.83 in 2006, but far off his past seasons where he had a K per 9 average over the last 3 seasons of 10.37. This offseason Prior went to see Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Lewis Yocum. Both suggested that Prior work on strengthening that problematic right shoulder. That has been a scary fact about Prior in past seasons and even Cubs’ athletic trainer Mark O'Neal has stated Prior’s shoulder as having “looseness” in his joints. Until Prior can show that 30+ starts can be attained, stay away. Let another owner take on that risk and don’t get caught up in potential.

Dan Uggla – Uggla had an amazing rookie season in 2006 posting a statline of 105-27-90-6-.282. However, I am not a believer in him. Some people may not even know that this ‘06 rookie was 26 years old making his MLB debut last season. What we saw in '06 may have been the best we'll ever see out of him. There was a reason Uggla was in Double-A at age 25. Uggla’s great first half and overall numbers shadow what he did in the second half after the All-Star break. Uggla had a statline of 48-14-39-.256 in 305 ABs after the break compared to 57-13-51-.307 in 306 ABs before the break. Strikeouts were up by 21 after the break, SLG% down, and he finished the season really struggling with a .221 batting average in September. His power remained constant over the course of ‘06, which could dismiss my prediction of Uggla being a bust for ’07, but some mock drafts I’ve seen so far have Uggla being taken as high as the 5th round. With the lack of steals Uggla contributes to fantasy owners, a potential poor batting average makes Uggla no more than a 3-category contributor being selected in the early stages of draft day. I’ll pass.

Ray Durham – Durham put up one of his finest seasons in 2006 finishing with a 79-26-93-7-.293 statline. The homers Durham put up were a major surprise, as the 26 dingers were his best mark since 2001 when he hit 20 homers for the White Sox. This unfortunately for Durham will be his downfall for fantasy owners and why he makes my list as 2007 fantasy bust. Pacific Bell Park repressed homeruns by a whopping 31% in 2006 according to The Bill James Handbook. The fact that Durham is entering his age 35 season and hasn’t stolen double-digit bases in four of his last five seasons leads me to believe a decline is highly likely. Besides homeruns the only category that Durham had a major contribution in for fantasy owners was RBI. That was mainly because he was moved to the 3 hole of the batting order in front of Bonds, but early struggles or new manager Bruce Bochy’s plans could differ from what the Giants did in 2006.

Gary Matthews Jr. – In a contract year, Matthews Jr. put up a great season for the Texas Rangers finishing with a 102-19-79-10-.313 statline. The key is that it was a contract year. Many baseball players have put up career years during their contract year and then faded fast the following season (i.e. Adrian Beltre). Matthews Jr., in my opinion, is no different. Matthews Jr. was a career journeyman and platoon player before landing with the Rangers. His career average is .263 (with the aid of his .313 average added in). A contract year, hitting in Arlington and at the top of a pretty good Texas lineup surely aided Matthews Jr.’s breakout in ’06. Now in a less potent park and offensive lineup Matthews Jr. should come back down to earth. I don’t think he will be as bad as his past years, but don’t go into your draft expecting Matthews Jr. to be your number 3 outfielder. I think of him as a good travel day replacement for one of your mainstays. 

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