Confessions of an Auction Junkie by Mike Lombardo
Mike Lombardo is 3 time winner of Toutwars NL Expert League

Although I’ve enjoyed success in both, I prefer and enjoy auctions more than drafts. No question, auctioning adds a level of skill to the proceedings that go beyond player knowledge. There’s both art and science behind auction success.

It is sometimes said that you can’t win your league at the auction table, but you can certainly lose it. I heartily agree.

The objective of auction strategy is two-fold. The primary one is to acquire the players you want at a price that you’re willing to pay. Failing to land a specific player, your secondary objective is to make the other teams spend as much of their money as possible to get their players.

What follows is a cookbook of techniques and strategies that should make you into a competent auction player, and perhaps, a champion.

Auction Planning

Ground Rules
Before we begin, it is necessary to determine the type of league that you’re in. A shallow league is defined as one where all teams can have full time players. If both leagues comprise the player pool, then any league of fifteen or fewer teams would be considered shallow. If only one league is used, the number is eight. A league is considered deep if all teams cannot have full time players.

In shallow leagues, virtually all part timer players have little if any value, except perhaps, in leagues that require two catchers. In deep leagues, part timers can and do have value; the deeper the league, the more value part timers have. There will also be more part time players needed in such leagues to complete each team’s roster.

It bears reminding that you should be thoroughly familiar with your league’s rules and their ramifications. Such knowledge can be used for the auction and through out the season. As an example, most leagues require a minimum of twenty games played in the prior season for a player to be eligible at a given position. In some leagues, that number is ten. Pablo Sandoval played eleven games at catcher last year. In two catcher leagues where he qualifies at catcher, add $3-4 to his value.

It is imperative that you track the progress of the auction, certainly for your own team, but ideally, for all teams. The purpose is to create a picture of what has transpired, and to lay the groundwork for any subsequent actions on your part. The questions you need to answer at any point in time are the following: How much money does each team have left to acquire the rest of their players and how many players do we need? How many players do we need, by position? Laptop computers and appropriate easy to use software are increasingly being used for this purpose. I’m old school. I bring only two pieces of paper; my cheat sheet with player values, and a sheet to record my team.

I’m perfectly comfortable with computers, but prefer my manual ways because I can devote 98% of my time to thinking about my next move and to reflect on what’s happening at the table. Taking ANY time away from doing that is detrimental, in my view. But, what works for me might not for you, so peck away to your heart’s content. Please be advised, however, that you must not let the tool interfere with your auction. The less typing you do, the better. If you find keeping track is taking too much time away from strategizing, either have an assistant or use my method.

Player Values
The prerequisite to auction success is auction planning. There are two parts to planning. The first, and the building block for all subsequent events, is the acquisition of accurate player values (PVs). The importance of accurate PVs is most felt in the first part of the auction. Let’s say that the first player nominated is Babe Lou Gehrig and the current bid at $37. Should you bid $38? I mean you know he’d be great on your team, but would he be better than Willie Mays Mantle? The answer? Solid PVs.

If you have the former player at $41, then there’s no question you should bid again UNLESS you have reason, personal (one beauty of fantasy sports is that we can have the players we like) or otherwise, against it. Another reason you may be thinking of passing is that you have Willie Mays Mantle at $42, a value that you believe is higher than what others may have him, and you prefer him to Babe. But don’t pass. Bid. Why? Two reasons. The first is called price enforcement (see below). Your objective is to ensure that other teams use as much of their budget as possible to obtain their players. By doing so, you are assuring that there are less available auction dollars bidding against you as additional players are nominated. That increases your chances of success in obtaining the players you desire.

The second reason is that if no one else bids, you just bought your first player for $38, a $3 discount off his PV. While that may prevent you from bidding on and getting Willie Mays Mantle, there’s no assurance that you can land him at or near his PV. But, what if your PVs are inflated? If $33 is a more accurate assessment of Babe Lou’s worth, and the team that bid $37 for him did so because he’s that team’s favorite player, your $38 bid is likely the final one and you’ve overpaid for the privilege of having him on your team.

Creating/Verifying Player Values

Rule of Creation
The whole must be loosely equal to the sum of its parts. In other words, the values for all your players, taken together, cannot exceed the amount of money that all teams together have for bidding purposes. Let’s look at a hypothetical example. You’re in a ten team mixed league and each team is allotted $260 to acquire their players. That means that all ten teams will have $2600 to fill their rosters. Further, let’s suppose that each team has a 26 man roster and four reserve slots. When you’ve completed your PVs, the total for all players should be about $2600. If it’s higher than this figure, then individual values will have to be adjusted downward. The converse applies as well.

The construction of individual PVs follows along the lines of a pyramid. At the top are the elite players. Let’s call this level, $50. The next level, more populated, let’s call $40. Below that, is an even greater population of players we’ll call $30 followed by a $20 and a final level called $10. At the $50 level, there are possibly three players that appear. The $40 level contains about three times as many players as the level above it. The remaining levels contain about twice as many players as the level above them. Using player values obtained from a reliable source, last year’s actual PVs or your own estimates, construct individual player values. Then, apply the Rule of Creation and modify, up or down, individual values until they balance against the total.

Please bear in mind that when creating values in shallow leagues, only players having substantial at bats should have value. Others can be either dismissed or listed as reserve picks. In shallow leagues, premier players should have a premium attached to their value. This is because such players are at the top of everyone’s wish list, and failure to secure such players results in still being able to get a full timer who’s usually at least decent. A quick rule of thumb is the more shallow the league, the greater the premium, somewhere between 5-15%.

In deeper leagues, I recommend adding a buck to a player’s value for every additional position for which he qualifies, to a maximum of $3.

Your PVs must be listed by position.

Pitching verses Offense
Generally, teams spend two dollars on offense for every dollar spent on pitching. Therefore, when calculating PVs, all pitcher values combined should be about one third of the overall total. In the example from above, the split would be about $1800/$800. Create pitching/hitting bids separately.

PV Flexibility
Creating PV is not science. Rather, it’s an estimation of the relative worth of a given player. All of us have biases. They can be reflected in the dollar values created. If you like a certain player and would really like to have him on your team, bump his value a buck or three. The converse works as well. By making these personal adjustments, you automatically increase or decrease the chance of obtaining a given player without having to consciously do so in the heat of the auction, itself.

Finally, remember to create values in excess of the number of players (and reserves) to be acquired. In our sample league, where 300 players will be taken, having 20-25 excess hitters and 10-15 excess pitchers should cover it.

Strategy
Prior to the auction, you need to formulate a strategic plan. The overall goal is balance. The first consideration is how much to allocate between hitting and pitching. The rough rule of thumb is to spend twice as much on hitting as pitching. I tend to lean a bit more towards pitching, but a $170/$90 split works best in most circumstances. Once that determination is made, you need to profile the kinds of players that will help you achieve your category goals. For example, starters verses relievers, high strikeout guys, guys who hit for average (or who have a high on base percent, if that’s what your league uses instead), speed, power and more.

The Auction
The cardinal rule that overrides any other consideration is simply that you must make sure that you get at least your fair share of the good players.

Passive or Aggressive?
Never enter an auction with a preconceived notion about your reactions to what’s unfolding at the table. Rather, let what’s happening dictate those reactions. The most important question we are looking to answer is how are player prices trending? There are three possibilities, each with its own course of action. I urge you to be passive if players are going for more than you’ve estimated. In that scenario, you mustn’t tip your hand as to what you’re thinking; bid early, but drop out as soon as a player’s price is close to your bid value. If players are being sold at prices that are consistently higher than your bid values, it means that at some point in the auction, there will be bargains to be had, the greater the overbidding, the greater the windfall to be gained by exercising patience.

If prices are going for less than your PVs, then it’s time to get aggressive. Remember, you’re looking for a distinct trend, not that one or two players went for a buck less than your bid value. I have no hesitancy to buy the first player nominated if I have him at $32 and the bidding is about to die at $28. If he’s bid to $30, it’s judgment call. If it’s a player I really like, I’ll likely go to $31, prepared to pass any subsequent bid on that player. If I let him go at $30, I’ll use the results from the next player taken to see if I can detect a trend. If no clear trend is developing, you’re playing with sharks. Don’t worry much about it; it doesn’t happen too often.

It is frequently the case that some of the best values that come out of the auction, are players that were taken early. Being able to identify such situations is one of the keys to auction success.

Price Enforcement
During the first third of the auction, I recommend vigorous price enforcement unless you’ve been caught more than you’ve wanted. In my experience, I rarely wind up buying a player because I’m trying to jack up his price. It’s a practice that you become adept at with experience. Knowing the bidder who you are trying to nudge another bid out of helps too.

As the auction progresses, tend to get a bit more laid back, especially as your available dollars dwindle. This is especially true in the second half of an auction where many players were overbid early on. Since you expect some players to go for quite a bit less than they’re worth, you can’t afford to play price enforcer unless you are truly trying to acquire the player in question, or wouldn’t mind having him at the right price.

Player Nominations
Nominating a player to be auctioned is not something that should be taken lightly. It can be another way of gaining advantage on the competition. My basic tactic is to bring up expensive players that I’d prefer my competition own. Again, I want to encourage them to spend their money as quickly as possible. However, if the trend dictates being aggressive, then, by all means, bring up a player whom you covet. Nominating players during the end game phase of the auction (see below) requires special consideration.

Taking Periodic Stock
As your roster is filled, it becomes increasingly important to take stock of your team. You need to evaluate where you stand in the various categories. You need to stay apprised of whether you’re getting your fair share of the players, or you’re waiting to acquire them later on because you will be in a dominant money position to do so. Have you neglected pitching or hitting. Have you neglected any categories? If so, then try to line up and target players who can help you overcome deficiencies. You must also monitor the supply of the players you desire, by position. In so doing, you are guarding against the situation where you and another team both need a certain type of player, and there’s only one good one left. Now, bid values be damned. You’ll either have to grossly overpay for that player, or settle by taking someone who is markedly inferior. In either case, it is a situation to be avoided.

The End Game
I use the term, end game to describe the events that transpire as the auction draws to a conclusion and teams are jockeying and positioning themselves to acquire their final players. It is distinct from the reserve rounds. A well conceived end game strategy, properly executed, can be the crowning achievement to a successful auction. Simply stated, the objective of end game planning is to have more money than all other teams, so that no one can outbid you for the services of anyone remaining in the player pool. Failing that, it is having the highest dollar value per player needed.

Let’s take a look at an example. Let’s say Tim from Team A has a leading $40 left and you have the second highest total, $36. If team A needs an additional eight players to complete its roster, and you need only six, you are in excellent shape. He has an average of $5 per player, but you have $6. While it is true he can outbid you on any player, as soon as he does so, he relinquishes command of the end game to you. Such advantage is often intimidating to other teams, thus heightening your likelihood for success.

What you must avoid, at all costs, is having a number of players needed to complete your roster and only just enough money left to do it. I call this the aces and spaces approach and it’s quite common. In extreme examples, you’ll find teams with $10 left for ten players. And, those teams will get killed. All any other team needs to do to deprive them from any player is to simply bid again.

Nominations now take on a much more vital significance. With the specter of nominating someone for a buck, followed by absolute silence, you must target a player you’d be happy to own. If there is someone exceptional still available, wait until he’s nominated by another team, unless it’s your turn and you only need a final player. That allows you to be reactive and keeps control in your hands.

Congratulations. If you’ve completed your team and still have a few unused dollars left, consider your auction a success. It means that you maneuvered your team into a position of command in the end game and most likely got the players you wanted.

Do’s and Don’ts
● It should be self evident that punting categories only gives advantage to your opponents. I have automatic disdain for any scheme that recommends doing so.
● If there’s an exceptional rookie that you’d like to have on your reserve squad who may not open the season with the parent club (Braun, 2007), don’t hesitate to bring his name up in the auction and bid accordingly for him. If need be, you can always find a scrub to start the season on your active squad until he’s no longer needed. Such picks are not difficult, even in deep leagues.
● In the end game, you have $4 left for one player. If you truly want that player, always bid the minimum, thus giving yourself the chance to bid again UNLESS by doing so, you shut out the teams that have the same need at that position as yours. But by bidding $4 for what may well be the best player left for you, it creates an automatic impulse for the competition to shut you out by raising the bid.
● Always keep the competition in the dark about your intentions until it is too late.

You are welcome to review FSRU.com Rotisserie, Head to Head, and Mikes favorite, Auction leagues.