If 2002 was any indication rookies are a rare breed. Sure there was Karim Garcia and Josh Phelps but there were far more that just didn?t make the grade. The White Sox were a team with this problem. Joe Crede and Aaron Rowand were decent but nothing more than that. I expect a little more from them this year, even after Rowand?s bike accident.

This year there is a brand new crop of hopefuls. There are some stars in the rough and some questionable players. When it comes down to it, almost everyone can benefit from experience.

OFFENSE

The first rookie, Cleveland?s Travis Hafner is a highly touted rookie and has a shot for Rookie of the Year honors. Hafner was drafted by the Rangers and was traded during the Winter in the Einar Diaz trade. In my opinion, Cleveland got the better end of the deal.
You could expect .280, 20+ HR, 70-80 RBI.

Barring an injury, Hafner will be Cleveland?s opening day first basemen, replacing Thome. Hafner should have a decent season but not a great one as many people expect. He should hit for power and average while drawing walks. He?s a clear ROY candidate and should be a key Cleveland player for many years.

Next we have Francisco Rodriguez. He was very impressive and extremely effective in the post-season for Anaheim last year. He has a super strikeout ratio and a great fastball and a kind of a slurve. He should begin the year and pick up where he left off and be Percival?s set-up man. I expect good things from Frankie. You could expect 60+ innings, 70+ K's.

Then there?s Hideki Matsui. He was born in 1974 but for all intensive purposes he?s a rookie. He played ten years in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants and slammed 332 bombs while hitting .304 and driving in 889 ribbies. He could be the next Ichiro. Take a chance on him.
You could expect ..290, 25 HR, 80-90 RBI.

Finally, the questionables. Kansas City?s Angel Berroa and the White Sox Miguel Olivo. Berroa is a wild card and an injury risk. Yet he could see some playing time because the Royals really have nothing to lose by using him. He should do well offensively and we?ll see how he handles a bat.

Olivo is batting a horrid .154 this spring and is fighting Sandy Alomar Jr. and Josh Paul for the catcher position. You shouldn?t give Olivo a second glance. Both Berroa and Olivo should benefit from playing in the Majors but the experience won?t help them in 2003.

PITCHERS

A few rookie pitchers that are worth considering are Jose Contreras. Expect him to be a starter by midseason. Clemens, Wells and Pettitte all battled injuries last season and will likely spend time on the DL. If given a chance expect a half a dozen wins, as he learns the ropes of MLB.

Rafael Soriano is another pitcher worth a shot. He?s the favorite over injury-prone Gil Meche for the 5th spot in the rotation.
You could expect 150 IP and 100 + K's.

The Tigers might not have a lot of promise this year but Franklyn German could be a solid closer for the Tigers and is worthy of a roster spot.
You could expect 20+ saves.

The Rangers Colby Lewis will likely start in the pitching-thin rotation. He is worth a look but no more than a quick one.
A mediocre set-up man at best assuming he bests his 2002 numbers.

Mike MacDougal is the favorite to win the Royals closer with a fastball that can reach 100 MPH. But he strikes out few batters, getting only 30 K?s and 55 BB in 53 innings. You could expect 50 + IP, and 20 saves on this substandard team.

A Cleveland rookie by the name of Ricardo Rodriguez, who made seven Major League starts last season and should be the Indians #4 pitcher in the rotation. You can expect half a dozen wins if he retains a starting job.

Finally Tampa Bay?s Dewon Brazelton who will likely secure the 5th spot in the rotation on a starter scarce team. Unfortunately he isn?t worth drafting. He will win few games on a poor team and his lack of strikeouts can?t erase the negatives.
You can expect a handful of wins. He had control problems last year so look for him to give up 1 BB/1 K.

There are few sleeper SP?s in the AL. One of them is Johan Santana. Few can ignore his K output. With Milton out and Rogers in, I think Santana will still see some starts on account of the injury-prone Twins staff. You can expect 10 wins, 3.00 ERA and 150 K's.

Another is Jeremy Bonderman. While Detroit has a substandard team and has for over ten years, Jeremy is just another bright spot to an awful team. Hopefully Trammell and Gibson can give the Tigers some of the magic from 1984 but I?m not holding my breath. You can expect 5-8 wins, 4.00 ERA.

Stat predictions are about as accurate as Michigan weathermen but there are a few constants. Players like A-Rod, Soriano, Chavez and Vernon Wells are capable of topping their 2002 totals. Even with A-rod?s minor injury I expect a good season from him.

And as an added bonus for reading this far, here are the 2003 AL BUSTS!
1. David Wells - SP - Yankees. He was lucky last year but he turns 40 in May and he is overweight (I dunno Davey)

2. Shea Hillenbrand - 3B - Red Sox. Hey, I like the guy but his aggressive approach at the plate caught up with him last year.

3. Rodrigo Lopez - SP - Orioles. True he was a 15 game winner last year but at what cost? The Orioles ran him ragged and don?t give him the run support he needs to be successful.

4. Paul Byrd - SP - Braves. He has a high ratio of wins (17) to strike outs (129). He posted a respectable 3.90 ERA despite allowing 36 home runs. True, he?s going to a better team (albeit one with average offense) But all this only increases his price higher than it should be.

5. Kaz Sasaki - RP -Mariners. He?s 35 and coming off elbow surgery. A surgery he?s had three times. He had an ERA of 3.90 in the second half. All fantasy teams need a good closer, be smart and put your money on one other than Sasaki.
 

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