By Ryan Hallam of fightingchancefantasy.com
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins.
A no brainer in my opinion, the guy helps you in virtually every category. He is going to hit .280-.300, bang out 25-35 homers, score 120 runs, steal 35-50 bases, and drive in 65-90 runs. Maybe the RBI are a little low, but if you can get all of that from one guy how can you pass that up. Oh yeah, and he plays a premium position at shortstop and he's only 25 years old.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals.
Last season Pujols fell in many drafts after word of an elbow injury that would threaten his season if the Cardinals fell out of contention, which seemed likely. Well, the Cards hung around for far longer than we expected and Albert just continued to put up the same numbers he always has. You just can't get any more consistent option than Pujols, you know you will get production from this guy. In his eight year career he has never hit below .314, never hit less than 32 homers, never driven in less than 103 runs, and has scored at least 100 runs in every season but one....and he scored 99 runs. He usually throws in a half dozen stolen bases to go with it. You tell me who in baseball has ever been so good.
3. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets. It took me a few years to come around on Wright, but last season I finally changed my mind. The guy is awesome. His average and steals dropped some last year, but his power numbers went up to make up for it. He is always good for 155-160 games a year which is very important, you would hate to lose this high a pick to injury for any stretch of time. Wright will always hit over .300, hit 30 homers and drive in well over 100 runs. He should get back to around 20 steals again in '09 and is in the middle of a good lineup. Nothing not to like here.
4. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers.
After his fantastic rookie season there were many questions going into 2008 about Braun. Well, he answered them all emphatically last year. He didn't hit the .324 that he did in his rookie season, but .285 is still very respectable. Many, including myself, didn't think that he would run nearly as much as he did in his first year, but Braun stole just one less base in 2008 as compared to 2007. Of course, he played in many more games, but the fact is he was still active on the basepaths. But the guy can flat out rake. He just turned 25 years old and there's no reason to think that he can't possibly even get better.
5. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets.
If you think Jose Reyes is only about stealing bases then you are missing the big picture. Ok, so he isn't Prince Fielder, but if you can get a shortstop to hit you 15-20 homers AND steal 50-70 bases, oh that is enticing. Don't miss the fact that he very nearly hit .300 last season, scored over 110 runs, hit 19 triples and even drove in 68 runs while compiling over 200 hits. Shorstop isn't as shallow as it used to be, but you gotta try and get one of the elite. Reyes is a multi-category star, and you would be wise to pick him early.
6. Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians.
There are only two concerns that I have about Grady Sizemore. One is that he strikes out a ton and his batting average is not nearly as high as you would like it to be. Second, he plays the outfield with such reckless abandon that injury is always a possibility. The guy has no fear of crashing into walls or making diving catches. What he is, though, is a fantasy stud. He guy has elevated his game over the past couple of years to heights we didn't imagine. He was 30/30 for the first time last year, and nearly got his steals to the 40 plateau. He has yet to crack 100 RBI, but that is coming. There's a little more risk here than with the first six guys, but Sizemore is a fantastic pick if you are selecting in this spot.
7. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies.
Although there have been some players that have closed the gap on Utley as the number one guy at second base, he is still the class of the position. There have been plenty of reports about the hip surgery that he had in the offseason, and plenty of questions about his availability to start the season. But there are two reasons to not let Utley drop past this position on the draft board. One, all reports have been encouraging that he will be ready to start the season. And second, fantasy baseball is a six month season. Are you going to pass on one of the top ten players and a very shallow position because he might miss two weeks? Don't fall victim to speculative reports. You still can't find a better guy to anchor your middle infield.
8. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers.
Why does it feel like this guy has been around forever? Cabrera and the Tigers got off to an awful start to 2008, but at least Miggy was able to salvage his season from a fantasy perspective. He had career highs in both homers and RBI, but his average, runs scored, hits, and doubles all declined for the third straight year. Cabrera is a safe, consistent pick, but there are some concerns about him with the dropping statistics. If you could get .292/37/124 from him again in '09 I think all fantasy owners would sign on for that right away. Since he is built like Butterbean, his days of stealing a handful of bases is officially over, but he does put up other great numbers every year.
9. Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees.
As a Yankee Hater, this was the signing that bothered me because Teixeira is damn good. Not sure how a guy this good is about to be on his fourth team since the start of 2007, but that is where he stands. Tex is a professional hitter who falls down the rankings a bit because he won't bring you the speed that some of the guys in front of him might give and he has one little problem. The guy gets off to horrible starts to the season. Every year by June everyone who drafted this guy is ready to jump off a bridge because their early pick is dragging the team down. And yet every year when you look at the back of the baseball card the numbers are always strikingly similar.
10. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies.
The power is astounding but the average keeps dropping, and dropping, and dropping, while the strikeouts keep rising, and rising, and rising. If the average falls too much farther you will be looking at another incarnation of Adam Dunn. However, if you are looking for home runs, you will find no better source than Ryan Howard. He hits in a small little ballpark which always helps the power numbers, and that's not going to change. In three full seasons he has never had less than 47 homers, but in those three years his batting average has gone from .313 down to .251. I have confidence that it will bounce back to at least around .275 in 2009 and Howard should be a great pick in fantasy drafts if you get a late first round selection.
11. Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets.
I'm pretty sure that I have never selected a pitcher this high in a draft, but if the board plays out this way on your selection day, I think Santana is the next, best guy in line. He is great at every single pitching statistic. He wins games (now that they Mets' bullpen is stronger he will win more), he strikes out over 200 guys, his ERA is in the 2.00s range, his WHIP is in the 1.00-1.20 range, and the guy is just plain durable. He has made 33 or 34 starts in every season since becoming a full time starter and there is no reason to think that 2009 will be any different. He is to pitching what Albert Pujols is to hitting. You can pretty much write in his statstics at the beginning of April and you will be very close at the end of the year.
12. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers.
The feel good story of 2008 looks to build upon his breakout season. His RBI totals faded badly down the stretch, but if you look at his whole season, those are first round numbers. There's just not anything to dislike here. He hit for a good average, hit 30+ homers, finished with 130 RBI and even stole nine bases. A victim of the home run derby curse, Hamilton should put up another monster year statistically and lead your fantasy team throughout the year.
13. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia Phillies.
He might have fallen far from his MVP season, but Rollins is still one of the top few shortstops in the major leagues. To expect him to get back to 30/30 again might be a bit of a stretch, but he could certainly hit over 20 homers again and steal 40 bases. There might be other guys who might give you similar value and production, but after Rollins the talent at shortstop takes a serious dip.
14. Carlos Lee, OF, Houston Astros.
This might be a surprising pick to some, but if you look at his statistics, few players have been as consistent as Carlos Lee over the last six seasons. In five of the last six seasons, Lee has hit at or near .300, hit at least 30 homers (had 28 when injured in mid-August last year), and drove in 100 runs. His stolen bases have been decreasing slowly over time, but for a guy with those power numbers any stolen bases are gravy. He doesn't get any pub, but he is still one of the more consistent players in fantasy.
15. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins.
Even though his power numbers have decreased over the past three seasons, Morneau is still one of the top five first basemen in the league. His home runs have gone from 34 to 23 since 2006, but there are reports that he has bulked up in the offseason to help his power numbers return to where they were. You can count on the former MVP to return to his numbers from 2007 when he hit 31 homers and drove in 111 runs.
16. Matt Holliday, OF, Oakland Athetics.
The draft position of few players has been debated as much as Matt Holliday. He has gone anywhere from the fifth overall pick to somewhere in the third round. Holliday's homers and RBI took a whopping step backward in 2008, but his stolen bases went from 11 up to 28. So what can you expect after he left Colorado for a pitchers park in Oakland; I expect about a .310 average with 25-30 homers and between 90-100 RBI. You can also expect his stolen bases to drop back to the 15-20 range.
17. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays.
I officially have a man crush on this guy. If you take a quick look at his numbers, it might not be enough to get you excited. .272, 27 homers, 85 RBI. However, you have to remember a few things. One, the Rays held him down in the minors until April 12th. Two, he missed a month's worth of time after being hit on the hand by a pitch. Three, the guy was a ROOKIE for crying out loud. Longoria missed 40 games due to the Rays business practices and injury. Imagine what his stats would have been like over 162 games. He's clutch, he's young, and he will only improve. He also plays a position with very few good options. I love Evan Longoria, and I don't care who knows it anymore!
18. B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay Rays.
When home run total fell from 24 to just nine in 2008, fantasy owners were searching for the nearest bridge. Then he went out and hit seven more over just 16 games in the playoffs and everyone felt good again. So, which Upton will show up in 2009? He did have surgery to repair a torn labrum, an injury known to sap the power out of your swing. He likely will miss the first week or so of the season, but if his shoulder is back to normal, you could have a 20/50 guy on your hands, and if he's still not right, a 10/40 player.
19. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants.
You might confuse him with the bat boy, but once he gets on the mound Tim Lincecum strikes fear into opposing hitters. The guy won the NL Cy Young in just his second season and struck out a ridiculous 265 batters to lead the league. Sure, he plays for a crappy team but the Giants are improving, and when your ERA is 2.65 you don't need a lot of help from your offense. Tiny Tim should be the second pitcher taken on draft day, and while his stats might take a small step back, he will still be amazing.
20. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers.
If he could stay healthy for a full season, Kinsler would jump five spots or more on this list. His statistics have improved each season and he was on his way to a 20/20 season before a sports hernia ended his year in August. It might be a bit of a stretch to expect him to hit .320 again, but given his minor league statistics, a .285 average is definitely attainable. Put that together with the potential to hit 25 homers, steal 30 bases, and the fact that he plays second base and you've got a real gem on your hands. The only downside is he has never played more than 130 games, and you can't ignore that.
21. Manny Ramirez, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ok, so as of today he still doesn't have a team. But if you look at the back of his baseball card, Manny's numbers have Hall of Fame written all over them. He might be a bit of a character, and it might not always seem like he cares very much, but when he's in the batter's box there are few as good as him. Manny has hit at least 33 homers and driven in at least 102 runs in 10 of the last 11 seasons, and he hit anywhere from .292 to .351 over that stretch. He single-handedly took the Dodgers to the playoffs, and no matter where he goes you can count on great statistics from him again.
22. Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets.
His numbers have been all over the map since coming to New York, especially the home runs. After hitting just 16 in his first year with the Mets, in 2006 he connected on 41 jacks. His average has been in the .275-.285 range, and he has driven in at least 110 runs in each of the last three seasons. Beltran has also climbed this high in the rankings because he's been able to get his stolen base numbers to start going up again. Since stealing just 17 in 2005, he has seen an increase each year and was able to nab 25 bags last year. He won't ever threaten 40/40 again like he did in his last season in but Beltran is still a top ten outfielder for sure.
23. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers.
After hitting 50 home runs in 2006, Fielder was everyone's darling and he was drafted in the first round the following year. Now, after a 34 homer year he has plummeted down the draft boards and everyone is calling into question his conditioning because of his weight. Is it possible that the guy had an off year? Is it possible that 50 homers is his ceiling and he won't reach that again? The answer to both is yes. Is Fielder a victim of unrealistic expectations. I believe he is. The good news for fantasy players is that he is also due for a better year in 2009. And if you can get a guy who will hit 40-45 home runs at the end of the second round or even the beginning of the third, you've got what we call a steal.
24. Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs.
Since going 40/40 in his one season with the Nationals, Soriano's stats have slowly declined since joining the Cubs. The most drastic drop is in his stolen bases. Once a 40 steal candidate, Soriano hasn't even cracked 20 over the past two seasons, and his home runs have gone from 46 to 29 in just two years. He was never a high batting average guy and he's only driven in 100 runs twice in his career. Reports are that he has come into camp in great shape and Manager Lou Pinella has predicted at least 30 steals. If he can get his steals back to that level and his power stroke back, he is worth being selected in this spot.
25. Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Rays.
For the first time in his career, Crawford dealt with serious injury problems. When your game is based on your speed, hamstring injuries can really take their toll. A finger tendon injury cost him even more time. Now that he is back to 100% there is no reason to think that Crawford can't return to his 15 homer, 80 RBI, 50 steal numbers from the prime of his career. He will be available longer than he should be after last year's injuries, but he's already had two triples in a spring game, a great sign that his legs are feeling good and he's not holding back.
26. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies.
This kid just keeps getting better. There is really is nothing not to like in Hamels as far as fantasy is concerned. He wins a good number of games, his ERA has dropped for three straight seasons, and his strikeouts have increased over the past three years, almost getting to 200 in 2008. Hamels is also great help in the WHIP category, as he walks very few batters. The Phillies are a championship caliber team, and that should keep Hamels' win total on the rise. The only downfall of having him is the small ballpark that he calls home, and he tends to give up a high number of home runs. With his falling ERA and rising strikeouts, Hamels is a great selection here.
27. Lance Berkman, 1B, Houston Astros.
His power numbers have dropped over the past three years, but his overall statistics are still very good. A word of caution to those of you wanting to select Berkman. Last year he stole 18 bases, and that was more than the previous three seasons combined. Berkman is built like the Pillsbury Dough Boy, so to expect him to approach 20 steals again would be ill advised. If you are looking for a guy to hit over .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBIs to play first base and you are picking at the front of the third round, Berkman would be a strong selection.
28. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego Padres.
A former number one overall pick of the Texas Rangers, Gonzalez sure has flourished since going to the Padres; In his three years as starter, his home runs have gone from 24 to 36, and his RBI have gone from 82 up to 119. He tends to strike out a bit too much, and his batting average has dropped 25 points over that time. There is also a slight concern that the Padres have let anyone go who has any track record of success. The lack of protection he has in the lineup could negatively effect his stats, and the cavernous Park that he calls home doesn't help either. But the Pads have never been a great offensive team, and Petco didn't get any bigger this year, so it is safe to expect another monster year from Gonzalez.
29. Brandon Webb, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks.
Few pitchers have been as durable, as consistent, or as good as Brandon Webb in the past three seasons. Although he has only one Cy Young award over that span, you could make an arguement that he should have three. With an ERA that hovers around 3.00, The only thing that holds Webb back from being perhaps the first pitcher taken is his strikeout numbers. It isn't that Webb doesn't rack up the Ks, but just not at the same rate as Santana, Hamels, and Lincecum. He was the major league leader in wins in 2008 with 22, and although he might not quite get back to that number, she should threaten to get to 20 again.
30. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees.
A-Rod was listed 3rd on this list before news of his injury. He has been a superstud ironman even in his offseasons. But the cyst on his hip could very well change that this year. Over the last 12 years he has never had less than 500 AB's and and over the last 3 he has averaged 555. Last year was definately an off year- for him anyway- 510AB's/.302/35/103/18. Great year, right? Well, it is unlikely that he can do similar stats at 300, 350, or 400 hurt AB's. He is so good, I still listed him lower 3rd round as he may actually play through it. But draft with uncertainty.
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