History Repeating Itself by Eric Boesinger

I am not even going to claim that this free agent season is ?crazy?. Of course it is crazy. It has been this way since the advent of free agency thirty years ago. You are dealing with rich owners playing a game, a game in which money is almost irrelevant. What is relevant is what the media says about them, and to achieve the media stroking that they so crave, they must do one of two things: win or spend gobs of money. Since building a winner usually takes too long, they end up throwing money at players whom they hope will also lead them to becoming a winner. This, however, is not how it works. Is Carlos Lee going to win a championship for the Astros? How about Barry Zito in San Francisco? Chances are these teams will be trying to dump these salaries within two years.

The worst is the signing of Zito. Do any of you remember Wayne Garland? He won twenty games for the Orioles back in the ?70?s, became a free agent and signed with the Indians for about a gazillion years for millions upon millions of dollars. His first season in Cleveland he tore his rotator cuff, pitched sporatically for the next few seasons (with only one highlight?a one-hitter against the Yankees), retired, and finally got done with his contract sometime in the ?90?s. Spending so much of your budget on one pitcher is just asking for trouble. Many will point out how Zito never misses a start. This is true ? until now. Past performance is not a guarantee of the future, and that includes Zito?s.

The part of this signing that I just cannot stomach is that Zito is just not that good. If you take away his one Cy Young season, you can count on him for 14 wins and an ERA of about 3.75 pitching in one of the premier pitcher?s parks in baseball and on a contending team. Big deal. Even if Zito returns to the form that one him his Cy Young, is it going to make much of a difference for the Giants? Probably not. The Giants are a very old team with nearly nothing in their minors. This team could be rebuilding for the entire length of Zito?s contract. This question should be asked by every owner before he pulls out his checkbook -- will this player help win this team a championship? With Zito, the answer is more then likely no, as is with most big ticket players signed this off-season.

If Zito?s signing was the worst this off-season, then Carlos Lee?s is a close second. Lee has never had an OPS over .900. In a good year he may flirt with .900 but, really, the guy is a .850 OPS hitter. This is fine by the way. You can win with these types of hitters providing they hit no higher then fifth in your lineup, but preferably lower. The problem is, he is getting paid like he is a top cleanup hitter. This is the problem of this free agent season ? it?s not the money but who is getting it. There just wasn?t any difference makers to sign this winner (with the possible exception of Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox). These contracts thrown around this winter are franchise cripplers. Doesn?t anyone remember Mike Hampton? The Rockies still have not fully recovered from his signing. It is a lesson too few owners choose to remember.

This is not to say that there were not teams who emerged as winners this off-season, but they are not who you the media will point out. St. Louis came out of the madness quite well, choosing to lock up Chris Carpenter at a very reasonable contract and signing some potential bargains (Kip Wells is one of them. A pitcher who is probably better then some of the crap out there who was signed for crazy money), while still having enough left over to sign more before spring training. I also like what the Indians did -- building a bullpen with one year contracts.

What does this have to do with fantasy baseball? Well, these overpriced players are probably going to be overly priced in your league as well. Chances are, if you end up with Lee or Zito you probably were as crazy as the major league owners who signed them. By the way, bashing owners is a great pastime for mean people but are they any different then us? What if you were in an auction with no salary cap? Would it be any different? I really do not think so.