As we head into the 2002 season, one of the biggest subjects with baseball analysts and fantasy owners is finding the big "sleeper." A sleeper is simply a player that is likely to have a big season or improvement without being expected to do so. Also, he is expected to earn much more than what you pay for him on draft day, therefore earning a profit. There are many different types of sleepers, but we will simply focus on the ordinary ones for right now. Without further ado, here are ten sleepers for 2002 in no particular order.
Roy Halladay, SP, Toronto: Rather than asking why Halladay should improve next season, the better question would be why not? The 24-year-old has always possessed a great arm, but he now has the control and consistent release point to be successful. After working with former front office executive and pitcher Dave Stewart, Halladay had much more control. Halladay not only had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly 4:1, he walked just 2.1 batters per nine innings. That is an outstanding ratio and certainly much improved over his ratio above 4.5 in 2000. The most impressive feature about Halladay is the fact that he has a groundball/flyball ratio above 2.50. Past studies have shown that extreme groundball pitchers like Halladay with 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratios are nearly guaranteed success. As long as Roy can maintain his release point on his fastball, we should see an incredible season for him.
Derek Lowe, SP, Boston: The former Red Sox closer is now ready to regain a role in the starting rotation fulltime. Like Halladay, Lowe has a career groundball/flyball ratio above 2.50. Also like Halladay, Lowe's control has improved greatly over the past few years. In three starts last season, Lowe had a 1.13 ERA due to his high K/9 and low BB/9 ratios. Considering that Lowe has a very high K/BB ratio and a solid bullpen behind him, we should see a solid season along with at least 15 wins.
Brian Lawrence, SP, San Diego: Lawrence is really an unknown pitcher, but the only thing that can prevent him from having a great 2002 season is manager Bruce Bochy. Bochy is a respected "player's" manager, but he has a reputation of overworking young starters (Adam Eaton). Lawrence, generally a soft-tosser, had a 3.23 ERA in 15 starts last season despite Bochy. If that is not impressive enough for the sophomore, he had a 2.7 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9, a clear carryover from his minor league numbers. Similar to Roy Halladay and Derek Lowe, Lawrence had a groundball/flyball ratio of nearly 2.50. With all of these ratios being so solid, Lawrence is a steal on draft day.
Eddie Guardado, RP, Minnesota: Since Minnesota failed to make any off-season moves for one reason or another, Guardado goes into 2002 replacing LaTroy Hawkins at closer. The former left-handed setup man is one of the best and largely under appreciated relievers in the game. The flyball pitcher had a K/9 above 9.0 last season, and his BB/9 was a solid 3.1. Guardado is nearly unhittable from both right-handers and lefties, similar to fellow lefty extraordinaire Steve Kline. Though Guardado usually gives up a high amount of homeruns, he is a great reliever. Becoming a closer makes him that much more valuable.
Esteban German, 2B, Oakland: Rookies do not always make the best sleepers, but German's plate discipline makes him the clear exception. German's BB/K ratio has been very impressive throughout his entire career, and that leads to a high batting average in the majors. Though Oakland is not really a running team, German has blazing speed. With 2001 second baseman Frank Menechino in the doghouse following a horrific second half, German has a very good shot at winning the second base job out of Spring Training. If he needs more time in Triple-A, he will definitely be starting my July according to A's GM Billy Beane. A solid .290 hitter with 45 steals is possible if German can get a full season. If not, just cut the SB projection in half.
Dmitri Young, 1B, Detroit: The Tigers clearly got a steal trading failed five-tool outfielder Juan Encarnacion and Luis Pineda for Dmitri. Though Young has never had the best walk rate, he is a pure line drive hitter. Young has batted .300 over the last four seasons, and he is now entering his prime at age 28. With the huge outfield in Comerica Park, Young should have more room for his line drives and bloopers into shallow left and right field. There is a possibility that we could see a .330 hitter with that much room available for the taking.
Marcus Giles, 2B, Atlanta: The younger brother of Pittsburgh slugger Brian Giles, Marcus has many of the same qualities that make his brother such a great talent. Those qualities start with good plate discipline (28/37 BB/K last season) and good power. Giles was a legitimate power hitter in the minor leagues, and he had 9 homeruns in just 244 at-bats last season in the major leagues. Over a full season that comes to over 20 homeruns, and at second base that is great production. Did I mention that Giles has shown teens stolen base ability in the minor leagues? With this type of plate discipline, Giles could conceivable have a .290-25-85 season at second base as early as 2002.
Steve Cox, 1B, Tampa Bay: Say whatever you want about the Fred McGriff salary/free agency situation last season, Cox was one of the main reasons that the Crime Dog left the doghouse. Although it escaped him last season, Cox has shown very good plate discipline in the past and the ability to hit .300 on a regular basis. Cox also has good power with 12 homers last season in 342 at-bats last season. With more consistent playing time, it is clear that Cox would be a much more consistent hitter. Perhaps he could even escape his home/road demons, as well. Over a full season we have clear 30 homerun capability here at a very low price.
Toby Hall, C, Tampa Bay: Though Hall is only a sleeper in some leagues, he is ready to join Mike Piazza and Pudge as the elite catchers in the major leagues. Hall was a superb hitter in the minor leagues, and that carried over last season when Hall hit .298-4-30 in 188 at-bats. He also hit lefties and righties equally well, showing solid composure in front of both. Hall's plate discipline is very similar to Paul LoDuca, as he does not walk or strikeout a great deal. With Hall and his extreme flyball ratio making contact so often, we are bound to see a power burst in the near future. Look for a season similar to LoDuca's 2001 season.
Mark Kotsay, OF, San Diego: Kotsay was expected to be a sleeper last season, but with all of his injuries it was not meant to be. So why is the defensive whiz a sleeper for the 2002 season? Most notably his plate discipline and doubles have taken a rise over the last two years. Plate discipline is an indicator of a solid batting average, as Kotsay has shown over the last two seasons hitting over .290, and a high amount of doubles is an indication of future power. Furthermore, Kotsay has good speed, and manager Bruce Bochy loves to run his players. Kotsay had just 13 stolen bases last season, but we could easily see 20 or more from him next season considering how often he is on-base. With a healthy season, we should see a .300-20-80 hitter with 20 stolen bases. By any measure, that is solid production.
There are more sleepers than just the ones listed above. Picking great sleepers such as Albert Pujols and Corey Koskie from last season could be the difference between mediocrity and the league crown. You need to make the most of your late round choices or single digit buys to win your league, and sleepers are a great place to start.
