Don’t expect much of a change in Cameron’s home-run totals or overall batting average. He’s moving sideways from one pitcher’s park (Safeco Field) to another (Shea Stadium), so somewhere between 20-25 round-trippers is a fair guess as to what he’ll finish up with. But homers and average are not what set Cameron apart from most fantasy outfielders. His stolen base potential—at least 30 in two of the last three years—coupled with his power made him a hard-to-find commodity. Even batting sixth for the Mariners, Cameron was still given the green light to be a thief. In Flushing, the only kind of green light he’ll see isn’t on the basepaths, but the streets surrounding Shea. The only Met likely to have the go-sign on the bases is leadoff hitter Jose Reyes, and even he’ll have trouble reaching his full potential in thefts. If Cameron finishes with double-digits in steals, it would be a shock. Be wary of laying a middle-round pick on this one-time jack of all trades. As a team, the Mets nabbed just 63 bases, and no individual had more than 14. If you’re keeping track, note two things: Juan Pierre stole three more bases than the entire team, and Cameron’s 17 in 2003 would have topped everyone in Flushing, and he wasn’t even a top-of-the-order hitter for the Mariners.
Considered one of the most promising second basemen in the National League, Vidro’s biggest enemies are his own body and the turf at Olympic Stadium. He’s missed 56 games over the last three years because of a lengthy list of maladies, but his offensive potential is undeniable. And that’s where the debate begins. Do you hope for the best with Vidro knowing he consistently misses time in bunches? Though Vladimir Guererro is gone, the Expos welcome Nick Johnson, Carl Everett, Tony Batista and an X-factor in Juan Rivera, giving them a lineup that could be one of the deepest in the National League. Believe it or not, second base is becoming a deep position in the national league as Marcus Giles, Keith Ginter and Mark Loretta get set to join a group that includes Jeff Kent, Luis Castillo, Ray Durham and Junior Spivey. There’s not much of a reason to jump all over the one player everyone’s got pegged as the next big thing. There are plenty of other reasonable alternatives available.
Hernandez has always been an innings
hog, averaging 224 over the last six years. He’s pitched 676 innings over the
last three years alone, a total bested by only Tim Hudson, Bartolo Colon, Mark
Buehrle, Javier Vasquez and Curt Schilling, heady company indeed. But judging
by his workload, it’s safe to say Hernandez is an “old” 29, because his arm has
suffered through so much wear and tear. If his September swoon in 2003 is any
indication—at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts—he may
have just reached his peak. Hernandez has seen his ERA (5.24, 4.38, 3.20), WHIP
(1.55, 1.41, 1.21) average against (.297, .283, .253) and walk totals (85, 71,
57) drop in three consecutive years, but the smart money says his durability is
something to be concerned about heading into 2004. Hernandez flew under the
radar in 2003, but there’s no reason to apply a sleeper tag to him. If
anything, Hernandez could find himself in the running for Bust of the Year once
October rolls around. The consistent fall in his numbers have likely hit a low
point. Don’t get caught when they start moving in the wrong direction.
When LoDuca burst on the scene in 2001
hitting .320 with 25 home runs and 90 RBI in just 460 at bats, it was easy to
anoint him the second-coming of Mike Piazza on the West Coast. The guy simply
had a knack for hitting and just needed some time to develop. Two years later
it seems like someone’s taken this Popeye’s spinach, or shoved some Kryptonite
down his throat. LoDuca has hit just 17 home runs and driven in 116 combined and seen his average fall to
.273. Now that he’s 31, the Dodgers No. 1 catcher no longer holds that sleeper
label, and the ability to plug him in at first base won’t do much because of
the monumental drop in power (seven home runs in 2003). His fantasy value is at
catcher, and even that may be hard to justify now.
Three-year averages are normally a strong predictor of a player on the cusp of a breakout year. He may be showing signs of cutting down his strikeout totals, increasing his power, or even showing more patience and settling for walks. With Maddux, his three-year averages may signify the first big drop off in his career. Still a free agent, it doesn’t matter where Maddux finally settles down. Like good real estate, Maddux’s strong suit was always location, location, location. Batters couldn’t touch him when he was painting corners, and he rarely walked anyone on an off day. But his average against has increased in three straight years (.253, .258, .268), and he just posted his worst ERA (3.96) since 1987. Also disturbing is Maddux’s decrease in workload over the last two seasons. He tossed an average of 238 innings from 1996-2001, but in ’02 he hit 218 and last year fell under 200 (199). At age 37, Maddux is no longer an elite pitcher and lucky to be a No. 3 starter on any fantasy team.
If you could guarantee Griffey’s
presence in the lineup for 140 games, who wouldn’t take a chance on him at the
Great American Ballpark? But therein lies the problem. Griffey’s body has aged
so much he could star in the remake of Cocoon. At one point in his career he
ranked among the most durable in the game. Now, however, he strives for triple
digits in games played, not hits or RBI. Over the last three seasons, Griffey’s
totaled 717 at bats, 43 homers and
114 RBIs. The Reds new ballpark is a great place for power hitters, but the
team’s influx of youth in the outfield will make things even more difficult for
this former Hall of Fame lock in 2004.
What did the Rockies sponsor a turn-back-the-clock night or something? Who’s coming back next, Andres Galarraga or Dante Bichette? In his prime, no third baseman could touch Castilla on the fantasy diamond. He was as consistent as possible, regularly mashing 35-plus home runs (he averaged 38 dingers and 112 RBI between 1995-99). Now, however, he’s a shell of his former self. Some will point to 2003 as a Renaissance—22 homers, 76 RBI for the Braves—but let’s be real. His best years are behind him, and now he’s going to have to fight for time with Colorado’s biggest prospect, Garrett Atkins. Castilla may begin the season in the lineup, but his odds of finishing it there are slim at best.
What’s the perfect position for
Sanders? How about designated hitter, where he can give his creaky hamstrings a
rest? The move to St. Louis, where he replaces J.D. Drew, won’t do much for his
offensive production, because the turf will only subtract the number of games
he plays. Sanders has been a beast with the bat over the last three years,
clubbing 87 homers, driving in 262 and even swiping 47 bags. Sanders is a solid
fantasy outfielder, but when you factor in the number of games he’s missed
during his career (Sanders has never played in more than 140 and now enters his
14th season), take into account the brutal turf the Cardinals play
on and factor in his age (36), Sanders’ production has nowhere to go but down.
The move out of Toronto does not mean
Lidle’s going to become the pitcher he was with Oakland. Unfortunately, the
change in location, and league will make things even more difficult on the
right-hander. Cincinnati’s new ballpark was a tough nut to crack for pitchers,
as hitters clubbed more home runs there than any National League stadium but
Coors Field. In fact, one has to wonder who gave Lidle advice on inking a deal
with the Reds, considering he was bombed for 24 longballs as a member of the
Blue Jays, including two or more in five games. His walk total jumped from 39
to 60 and batters hit a robust .282 off him last year to boot. He may have the
name of a top starter for the Reds, but don’t consider him such on Draft Day.
Steve
Siniski is a premium writer for Fantasyasylum.com