Some fantasy ballers may feel that
outfielders are a dime a dozen. And to an extent, that type of thinking isn’t
necessarily false. However, it’s still a good idea to keep your eyes peeled for
those players on the verge of a breakout year with the potential to carry your
team across the board. Patterson should be No. 1 with a bullet at the top of
that list. While higher-priced veterans like Mike Cameron and Shawn Green will
be grabbed early in drafts, a player like Patterson could end the year in the
top 10 at the position. He’s entering his third full season, a number typically
representative of those players best suited for breakouts. And his 2003 totals
mirror those of ’02 in 263 fewer at bats!
Patterson played just 82 games, yet he still managed to rack up 13 homers, 55
RBIs, 49 runs and 16 stolen bases. What’s eye-popping about his jump forward
was his increase in walks per game. He totaled 15 last year after just 19 in ’02,
netting one every 21.9 plate appearances, compared with a ridiculous 31.2
average between walks the year before. The Cubs lineup is as nasty as any in baseball,
so no matter where Patterson hits, he’ll have plenty of protection and just as
much production.
Injuries have curtailed what was
supposed to be a Hall of Fame career for Drew, and 2003 was no different. He
hasn’t had more than 424 at bats in any of the last three years but still
belted 60 home runs during the span (one per 18.1 at bats). If you extrapolate
that total over the course of a 550 at-bat campaign, Drew would be on pace for
30 bombs. Coupled with a high average and quite possibly double-digits in
steals, he’d jump to the elite level of fantasy outfielders if he could stay
off the trainer’s table. Just entering his prime at 28, Drew is playing for a team
that has seen more than a few offseason pickups go boom rather than bust. Gary
Sheffield and Vinny Castilla exploded like stuffed pinatas last year, and Drew
will become the latest new face to enjoy a banner year at the Launching Pad.
Can the ceiling get any higher for Lee?
The scary part is, the answer is yes. His number have climbed three straight
years in home runs (21, 27,31), RBIs (75, 86, 92), stolen bases (4, 19, 21),
on-base percentage (.346, .378, .379) and slugging percentage (.474, .494,
.508). What more could anyone ask for, considering Lee is just 28? With all the
changes to the Chicago lineup—and return of Patterson—there’s little doubt that
Lee could be staring at a 30-30 season. With the exception of Jeff Bagwell and Ryan
Klesko, first baggers are normally big bangers with heavy bats and equally
heavy legs. So anytime you can stumble upon one with a set of wheels even
outfielders would be jealous of, jump all over him. Some may not value Lee as
much as Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, or even Albert Pujols in the National League,
but what he may lack in elite power, he more than makes up for on the
basepaths.
The knock on Overbay is his lack of
power. But after a failed stint in Arizona—he hit .276 in 254 at bats with just
four homers and 28 RBI—he was shipped to Milwaukee as part of a deal for
Sexson. That can only help Overbay’s value from a fantasy perspective. He’s not
only going to a small ballpark that ranked in the top 10 in home runs per game,
Overbay’s joining a lineup that may be the most underrated in baseball. The
Brew Crew welcomed Wes Helms at the hot corner last year, and the former
Atlanta castoff responded to a full-time role with 24 dingers, while Geoff Jenkins
had his first healthy season in years and blasted a career-high 28 out of the
ballpark. Up-and-coming second baseman Keith Ginter (14 homers in 358 at bats)
is also capable of big-time power totals. Sandwiched in the middle, Overbay’s a
good bet for some solid RBI totals and could surprise in the power department
now that he’s no longer in a battle to stay in the lineup.
Beltre consistently hovers around the
Boom/Bust area, but because he’s still just 24 the jury’s out on where he’ll
ultimately end up. Despite the constant criticism that always seems to surround
him, Beltre has managed to increase his home run total in each of the last
three years (13-21-23), with his run production following suit (60-75-80). He
finished 2003 on a tear, clubbing 18 of his 23 dingers, a clear sign that he
may finally be on the way towards becoming an elite third basemen in the
fantasy world.
Though he never got much of a chance to show his potential at the plate because of injury and Jason Giambi, Johnson’s offseason move to Montreal will bring the opportunity he’s been waiting for. The hard turf and spacious alleys in Montreal will help keep Johnson’s batting average over .300, while the rest of the lineup will help him boost his RBI totals closer to the triple-digit range. His batting eye and patience are nothing short of ridiculous, as he netted 70 walks in just in just 93 games and boosted his on-base percentage to a leadoff-hitter like .422, so keep a spot open in the later rounds for the Expos’ big Johnson.
Burnitz may not have secured a starting
job with the Rockies just yet, but that doesn’t mean he should be ignored on
Draft Day. You’re going to get one thing, and one thing only from Burnitz—a ton
of power—but as a No. 4 or No. 5 outfielder, how could anyone go wrong? Coming
off a 31-homer campaign that was split between a pair of pitcher’s park (Shea
Stadium and Dodger Stadium), there’s no question Burnitz’s long, looping swing
can still give the ball a ride. What better place for him to showcase that than
Coors Field where routine fly balls can turn into four-baggers? Hitting in a
lineup with Preston Wilson, Todd Helton and Larry Walker will afford Burnitz
the protection he needs and home run totals you desire.
Where can you find a catcher who hits
home runs in bunches? Colorado, no doubt. Johnson clubbed 20 home runs in just
356 at bats (one every 17.8), giving him a ratio not only comparable to Helton’s
(17.6) but better than Bobby Abreu (28.9), Brian Giles (24.6), Chipper Jones (20.5)
and Cliff Floyd (20.2). After Mike Piazza, Jason Kendall and Mike Lieberthal,
there’s more questions than answers behind the dish. It may be beneficial to
jump on a player you can count on for a reliable source of offense.
The only arm on this list of sleepers,
Jackson may have already let the cat out of the bag with a huge performance
against Randy Johnson last year. One of the Dodgers’ top prospects, Jackson
posted a 2-1 mark in four appearances (three starts), racking up an impressive
19 strikeouts in 22 innings. Sure, he walked 11 batters, but that’s normal for
a young fireballer. He’ll only get better with age and should have a lock on the
No. 5 spot in the Dodgers rotation behind Hideo Nomo, Odalis Perez, Kaz Ishii
and Jeff Weaver. Few teams have a rotation deep enough to compete with a hurler
like Jackson, meaning double-digits in wins may also be in the cards in 2003.
Johnny Estrada’s currently locked in as
the Braves No. 1 catcher, but that doesn’t mean Marrero won’t log important
game action behind the plate. Capable of stealing 10 bases, Marrero could fill
in at first for the Braves, too, a position that’s unsettled and could see
rookie prospect Adam LaRoche taking over. The real value with Marrero lies in
his eligibility at catcher. Simply put, he’d offer stolen base potential at a
position known for power and little else. Keep an eye on the depth chart in
Atlanta, because Marrero is a definite sleeper in NL-only leagues.
It wasn’t long ago when Hill had the
label of a can’t miss prospect in the Cubs’ organization. One trade later, and
Hill suddenly finds himself in a battle with Freddy Sanchez just to make the
Pirates roster. Though he won’t do much in the power department, Hill has
wheels and a solid bat that will help him get on base often. Taking away Reggie
Sanders (31 home runs), Brian Giles (20) and Matt Stairs (20) leaves Pittsburgh
with little power and may force manager Lloyd McClendon to take a scrappy
approach on the basepaths.