They’re lurking at every corner like a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Over-hyped for one reason or another, there are always players that should be avoided like a buffet when Tony Siragusa steps on the line. Busts can be players coming off a career-year—even if you were completely engulfed in an AL-only league last year you should have heard of Javy Lopez—entering a new league, or even becoming the focal point of the offense for the first time. Our list of busts runs the gamut from stars (Eric Chavez), to players in new roles (Arthur Rhodes) and even players coming off an MVP-type season (David Ortiz). Here at fsru.com, we want you prepared, so we’ve taken out some of the legwork you need to do as Draft Day draws closer.
Has anyone in the history of sports
ever put together a free-agent push like Lopez? He set a major-league record
for catchers with 43 home runs, and a new personal benchmark with 109 RBIs and
a .328 average. What does this all add up to in 2004? Can you say BUST? He tops
the list for several reasons. One, his show-me-the-money drive came on the
heels of consecutive seasons where his totals dropped across the board in home
runs (24-17-11), RBIs (89-66-52), average (.287, .267, .233) and games played
(134-128-109). Money does funny things to people, doesn’t it? A career year at
33 years of age doesn’t do much for Lopez’s long-range fantasy prospects, and
now he has a nice, cushy contract to fall back on, too. Throw in a change in
leagues—he moves to Baltimore from Atlanta—and we’re talking about a whole
different ballgame. While the DH should help keep Lopez in the lineup, there’s
no reason to think he’ll even come close to his numbers of 2003, when he was
reportedly in the best shape of his life. With his money issues settled,
where’s the motivation?
Chavez is going to enter 2004 as the top 3B on many fantasy lists and with good reason. He’s hit at least 29 HRs and driven in at least 101 runs in three straight years and has been a solid run producer in the middle of Oakland’s lineup. So why is he near the top of this list? Because with Miguel Tejada gone, there’s a gaping hole at a power spot in the A’s lineup. Chavez, who’s played at least 151 games in each of the last four years, now takes over as the top dog with little protection around him. Mark Kotsay’s in the two-hole and injury-prone Jermaine Dye’s going to bat cleanup, so who do you think teams are going to want to pitch to? Dye has been a disaster since breaking his leg in the postseason two years ago and his power totals have taken a nose dive almost down to Rey Ordonez levels. And when Chavez isn’t getting pitched around, his own struggles against lefties—he hit .220 in 191 at-bats--will only make things worse. Let someone else take the plunge on Chavez, because he’s definitely among the most overrated at the moment with perhaps the best odds of becoming a disappointment.
What are the A’s trying to recapture
Dennis Eckersley’s glory years? Since when do players step into a closer’s role
at the age of 34 without any prior success in pressure situations? Rhodes has just
17 career saves (three last year) and he allowed at least one run is 16 of his
54 outings, including at least two runs on six occasions last year. After
averaging at least one strikeout per inning for eight consecutive years, Rhodes
struck out 48 in 54 innings last year. Is this closer material? If we had a
magic 8-ball, all signs would point to NO! At least Atlanta’s John Smoltz was a
big-game starter for years before converting to a closer’s role. Rhodes, on the
other hand, has been nothing more than a solid middle reliever who’s dominant
for brief stretches. No matter what you think of Billy Beane, this acquisition
has all the looks of a major-league reach. When you take a guy out of his
comfort zone and put him on the mound with the game on the line, you’re asking
for trouble.
Ortiz, coming off a season in which he finished fifth in the AL MVP voting, is tailor-made to play in Fenway Park. A pure hitter since his days with Minnesota, this Dave Parker clone never got the opportunity to play on a regular basis, and when he did, often shot himself in the foot with injuries. Now, Boston has seen what can happen when Ortiz steps to the plate as an everyday player, but we must caution you, Ortiz is falling into a pattern of being a second-half performer. There were few hitters as hot as Ortiz over the second half of 2003, as he drilled 21 home runs and drove in 55 runs. In 2002, he hit .297 with 15 homers and had 42 RBIs in after the break. So what’s the best way to deal with Ortiz on Draft Day? Let someone else break the bank or burn a high draft pick, then snag him as a buy low candidate when that same owner chalks up Ortiz as being a one-hit wonder.
What are we picking on Oakland or something? Believe it or not, I’m really an A’s fan, tried-and-true. But this year’s edition of the team is nowhere near as strong as previous versions and it’s all because of the batting order. Over the last several years, Kotsay has been a solid bat at the top of San Diego’s order, netting double-digits in both home runs and steals. And truth be told, at 28, Kotsay is just entering his prime. But while moving from San Diego to the Bay Area isn’t necessarily a step backwards weather-wise, Kotsay has to deal with spacious Network Associates Coliseum that will turn his home run pop into warning-track power and a manager who treats stolen bases as if they were a contagious disease. Unless defense counts in your league, Kotsay’s better left untouched.
Jordan is nothing more than a stop gap for the Rangers, who just may have one of the brightest young group of outfielders in baseball. In Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench and Ramon Nivar, Texas has a well-rounded combination of power and speed. Slated to bat in the middle of the Texas batting order, one has to wonder just how long Jordan will remain healthy. He missed almost the entire second half of 2003 with a leg injury which required offseason surgery and isn’t going to become an iron man anytime soon. He’s just keeping a starting spot warm for the young guns.
Aurilia peaked in 2001 when he hit .324
with 34 home runs and drove in 97. In the two years since, he’s totaled just 28 round-trippers and
driven in 119 while hitting .267. He inked a deal to take his show further
north on the West Coast to Seattle, where the Mariners play in one of the most
unfriendly hitters parks around. The AL West is undoubtedly pitcher-heavy, and
the change in leagues will only compound Aurilia’s struggles.
The addition of Reese at 2B (and the
No. 9 spot in the order) gives Boston’s lineup a nice bottom-top combo in terms
of speed with Johnny Damon batting leadoff. The key for Reese, however, isn’t
getting on base. It’s getting onto the field. Reese has been plagued by injuries
throughout his career, and the number of games he’s played has diminished every
year since the turn of the century (135, 133, 119, 37). The change in managers
from Grady Little to Terry Francona will help Reese’s stolen base totals, but
don’t forget about Mark Bellhorn, either. Like everyone else on Boston,
Bellhorn has a big stick and he can also play just about every infield position.
Speed is a commodity in fantasy leagues, but Reese can’t be counted on to
provide a consistent number considering his injury-prone history and likely battle
for at bats.
Steve
Siniski is a premium writer for Fantasyasylum.com