How to Draft a Good Pitching Staff by Todd Lammi

 

It is always interesting to me to talk to other fantasy owners about how they rank pitchers in fantasy baseball. Pitchers can be more unpredictable than the weather, thus the reason some fantasy magazines/books don’t even bother doing pitcher projections.

 

My rule of thinking has been to always draft pitchers late in fantasy drafts or bid cheap on them in auctions because hitters are more dependable and hitters are more valuable. Look at the way most fantasy league categories are set up. In a typical 5 x 5 league, a hitter can be worth five categories, batting average, runs, home runs, rbi’s and stolen bases. A starting pitcher is worth only four categories, wins, era, whip ratio and strikeouts. Relief pitchers are worth only three categories, saves, era and whip ratio. I will grant you that a small handful of closers could be considered four category performers including strikeouts, like Eric Gagne from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

 

I am not against drafting some pitchers early, because if you are drafting in a 14 team league, the majority of good pitchers are gone by the 12th to 14th rounds. I would recommend having at least three starters and one or two closers by that point of the draft. After the middle of the draft, I would be much more inclined to wait until the end of the draft to pick the remaining starting pitchers for a roster. Especially with some leagues having five to six reserve spots available, if you do your homework, one of those guys you draft to your bench may be able to help you during the season.

 

Pitchers are much easier to find during the season. It is seldom that a hitter is going to gain a prominent role during the course of a year, or that a player called up from the minor leagues that is going to have that much of an impact on the standings. On the other hand, there will always be several pitchers that emerge from nowhere that will be available on the free agent market that can be picked up. Take a look at last year, Esteban Loaiza, Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Webb are just a few of the names that helped many fantasy teams last season.

 

With all that said, there are several criteria I use to evaluate pitchers that have proven successful for me over the past few years.

 

1.  Research, Research, Research – The more you read on baseball, the more you watch television, and the more you know. It sounds simple, but it is true. I am not saying that you have to read every magazine or spend five hours a day surfing the internet, but finding several key websites and checking them daily should take you no more than a half hour each day. An example, while I do not take for gospel what Peter Gammons of ESPN says, it made me interested to note how he mentioned on several occasions that Barry Zito missed more bats (hitters swung and missed) in the Cape Cod league than he had ever seen before. In his first game called up for the Oakland A’s, Zito ends up loading the bases with nobody out and the heart of the Anaheim Angels order coming up. He promptly strikes out three hitters in a row without allowing a run. I picked him up in my league and the rest is history as they say.

 

2.  Hard throwers become pitchers – Outside of research, the best indicator I have found for drafting pitchers is pitchers that throw hard (strikeout batters) that don’t quite yet have the control. The logic being a pitcher who throws hard, can throw the ball by hitters more easily and once he gets his control down, he will become a successful fantasy pitcher.

 

My sleeper pick I targeted last year was Carlos Zambrano of the Chicago Cubs. In 2002, he had a 1.45 whip ratio, walking 63 batters in 108.1 innings. Looking at his home run totals, he allowed 9 home runs for the year which was a pretty good ratio. Checking his minor league stats, he also allowed 9 home runs in 150 innings in two different years while walking a good amount of hitters. Just from looking at his stats, I see that he struggles with his control, but he is missing wide in the strike zone, not high, because his home run totals are pretty low. From the couple times I saw him pitch, I saw he is throwing in the mid 90’s and he keeps the ball down in the strike zone. That to me was a classic buy sign. Looking at 2003, he lowered his whip ratio to 1.32 and he allowed 9 home runs in 214 innings. He also had the third best groundball to fly ball ratio in the National League. Not too bad for a guy I drafted in the late in the draft.

 

In 2001, my sleeper pick I targeted was Wade Miller of the Houston Astros. In 2000, he split the season pitching for AAA and the Astros the second half of the season. He posted a 5.19 era and a 1.39 whip ratio in 16 starts, allowing 14 home runs in 105 innings, with 89 strikeouts. The one start I saw him in, he was throwing mid-90’s but he struggled finding the strike zone. Looking at his minor league numbers, he had posted decent home run ratios (16 in 162.1 innings in AAA, 17 in 221 innings in A/AA). His worst whip ratio in the minor leagues had been 1.36 in AAA. All this information added up to a buy sign for me. I ended up drafting him late in round 24 and he ended up going 16-8 with a 3.40 era, 1.22 whip ratio and 183 strikeouts in 212 innings for the Astros that year.

 

I am looking for pitchers that have pitched a full season or a partial season in the majors and have not quite put up good numbers yet. Low home run ratios as well as a good whip ratio in the minors are numbers to look at in pitchers that can throw in the low to mid 90’s. A power pitcher like Miller or Zambrano can struggle when they first hit the major leagues, because they tend to either nibble at the corners, or they don’t challenge the hitters enough, not yet trusting in their stuff like they did at the minor league level. Here are a couple of my picks for 2004. I don’t call these sleeper picks because I associate the word “sleeper” with surprise or unexpected. I rate these players as providing the best stats based on where they are likely to be chosen, late in the draft.

 

Jake Peavy – Peavy just completed his second season in the major leagues and slightly improved on all his numbers. He lowered his era from 4.52 to 4.11 and his whip ratio from 1.42 to 1.31 last season. Peavy was even better the second half of last year, posting a 3.46 era and 1.21 whip ratio after the all-star break. He held opposing batters to a .238 batting average, 19th best among starting pitchers. The one downside was Peavy gave up a whopping 33 home runs in 194.2 innings. Things seem to be headed in the right direction as last year would have been spent in AAA if Peavy had not been promoted from AA in 2002. Pitchers promoted from AA usually take three years to make a jump in lowering their stats. Missing out on the experience of pitching in AAA is a big detriment unless the pitcher is a super stud like Mark Prior or someone similar. Javier Vazquez was promoted from AA by the Montreal Expos and it wasn’t until his fourth season when his numbers became solid. His era was 6.06, 5.00, 4.05, 3.42 and his whip ratio was 1.53, 1.33, 1.42, 1.08 his first four seasons in the majors. Peavy had an outstanding track record in the minor leagues, with a high era of 3.08 and a high whip ratio of 1.20 while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. The only thing holding Peavy back from stardom are his struggles with the strike zone as he walked 82 batters last season. This is the year fantasy owners will begin to see another decrease in era and whip ratio and a rise in strikeouts as Peavy heads toward the upper echelon of pitchers.

 

Tim Redding – Redding isn’t as obvious of a pick after the signings of Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens filled the top four spots in the Houston Astros rotation. Redding will battle Jeriome Robertson (5.10 era, 1.52 whip), Brandon Duckworth (4.94 era, 1.53 whip) and Carlos Hernandez coming back from injury for the fifth starter role. Judging from the stats it would seem Redding should be the 5th starter if he continues to build on last year’s performance, but stranger things have happened. Redding spent part of 2001 and 2002 in the Astros rotation but didn’t perform well enough to stick for good. In his first full season as a starter last year, Redding posted a respectable 3.68 era and 1.39 whip ratio. He was even better after the all-star break, with an era of 3.50 and a whip ratio of 1.27. In 10 of his last 15 starts, he held the opposition to two runs or less. The talent is there for Redding to succeed. He averaged more than a strikeout per inning in his minor league career. He only had six starts in AAA before he was promoted, so like Peavy he is just starting to head toward his third season in the majors. The biggest problem Redding has had so far is between the ears. I have seen him lose his cool when calls do not go his way during the game or when a player makes an error behind him and he just seems to fall apart. The second half of last season he appeared to be much more composed on the mound and his stats seemed to indicate that. The addition of two veteran pitchers in Pettite and Clemens can only help a guy like Redding who has struggled more with the mental aspects than physical aspects of the game.

 

3.  Stay away from injury risks – Every year you see magazines or books proclaiming pitchers to avoid because they are injury risks. Very little do these articles offer statistical proof of pitchers that have broken down in the past. The theory by many fantasy “experts” is that a lot of innings thrown before the age of 24 leads to problems. If you look back at history, I am not so sure that this the correct answer.

 

Innings Pitched

Age

85.2

18

186

19

222

20

183.1

21

249

22

Take Greg Maddux who started pitching at the age of 18.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

Innings Pitched

Age

32.1

18

168.2

19

185.1

20

200.2

21

195.1

22

 

Tom Glavine had a lot of innings at an early age also.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Innings Pitched

Age

67.2

18

102.2

19

164.1

20

154.2

21

172.1

22

 Javier Vazquez of the Montreal Expos also started pitching at 18.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The three things these pitchers have in common is they threw a ton of innings at an early age but have all stayed healthy pretty much their entire careers. Also note that they had a somewhat leveling off of innings pitched. After his third season, Maddux had a decrease in the number of innings pitched. Glavine had a decrease in innings pitched after his fourth season, but had thrown 107 innings less than Maddux at that point of his career. Glavine’s rate on innings increase per year had been relatively small at 15-17 per season. Vazquez also had a decrease in innings pitched after his third season.

 

Now take a look at some players who have been injured at an early stage of their career and the innings thrown at an early age.

 

IP

Age

82.2

19

131.2

20

167

21

192

22

116.2 - injured

23

Adam Eaton of the San Diego Padres blew out his arm in

2001, on pace to throw 219 innings.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IP

Age

128

22

156

23

196.2

24

217.2

25

Injured all year

26

Kris Benson of the Pittsburgh Pirates blew out his arm in

2001 after throwing more innings for three straight years.

 

 

 

 

 

 

IP

Age

65

19

90.1

20

193.1

21

221

22

171.2

23

66.1 – injured

24

Jason Isringhausen, once a phenom for the New York

Mets blew out his arm in 1997, but pitched 66.1

innings in rehab assignments and at the end of the

season. He then missed all of the 1998 season.

 

 

 

 

 

Eaton, Benson, Isringhausen had three consecutive seasons of innings increase before they broke down. Not just three seasons of increases, but each pitcher had significant innings increases. While I know there have been times in history where a pitcher has had innings piled on for three consecutive seasons without being injured, my goal in fantasy baseball is to minimize risk and maximize potential. To me, when I had seen the stats of Eaton and Benson, I stayed away from them on draft day. A pitcher’s arm is delicate and can get injured for any number of reasons; I just offer you a small study of things to look for when evaluating injury risk. Whether you want to roll the dice or not is up to you.

 

 

IP

Age

66

18

170

19

181.1

20

210.1

21

233.2

22

223.1

23

151.2

24

Steve Avery is one of those pitchers who had consecutive

innings increases for four straight years and was never

injured, but his career fell apart quickly after that.

 

At the age of 24, Avery went 8-3 with a 4.04 era, a 1.20

whip ratio and missed 11 starts that season. The following two

years he went 7-13, 4.67, 1.25 at age 25 and then 7-10, 4.47

and 1.42 at age 26 and he was pretty much washed up at that point.

 

IP

Age

98.2

20

170

21

221.1

22

239

23

230.1

24

 

This brings us to an interesting comparable to Avery in

Chicago White Sox starter Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has thrown

three consecutive years of increased innings and has seen his

stats rise the past two years. His era has gone from 3.29, 3.58 to 4.14. His whip ratio has gone from 1.07, 1.24 to 1.35. Is a breakdown coming? I owned him last season and traded him

in my keeper league. This year on draft day I am staying away.

 

 

IP

Age

68.1

19

146.1

20

180.1

21

210

22

197.2

23

C.C. Sabathia of the Cleveland Indians also falls under the

injury watch. His statistical line for innings is actually pretty

close to Glavine’s their first four seasons, with each player just breaking into 200 innings by their fourth year. I would be very careful about drafting him this season.

 

 

 

 

4.  Watch the free agent market for closers.

Closers have usually been the most easily to find during a fantasy baseball season. Last season it was Rod Beck, Tom Gordon, Tim Worrell and Danny Kolb to name a few. Knowing the bullpen situations of major league teams can lead to great free agent pickups. Last year the Texas Rangers were shopping Ugueth Urbina who was signed to a one-year contract. If you were an astute fantasy owner, you recognized Francisco Cordero would be next in line for saves and picked him up several weeks before Urbina was expected to be traded. Same goes for Scott Williamson of the Cincinnati Reds who was mentioned in trade rumors several weeks before the deadline. By doing a little research, a fantasy owner would have found that Chris Reitsma was expected to take over the closer role if/when Williamson was traded and picked him ahead of time.

 

Here is a look at the current closer situations for each team:

 

Team

Closer

Backup Closer

Anaheim

Percival

Donnelly/Fr. Rodriguez

Oakland

Rhodes

Bradford

Seattle

Sasaki

Guardado/Hasegawa

Texas

Cordero

Zimmerman

Chicago

Koch

Marte

Cleveland

Wickman

Riske

Detroit

Rodney

German

Kansas City

MacDougal

Affeldt

Minnesota

Nathan

Balfour/Crain

Baltimore

Julio

DeJean

Boston

Foulke

Williamson

New York

Rivera

Gordon

Tampa Bay

Baez

L. Carter

Toronto

Lopez

Speier

Arizona

Mantei

Valverde

Colorado

Chacon

Fuentes

Los Angeles

Gagne

Mota

San Diego

Hoffman

Beck

San Francisco

Nen

Fe. Rodriguez

Chicago

Borowski

Hawkins

Cincinnati

Graves

Reitsma/Wagner

Houston

Dotel

Lidge

Milwaukee

Kolb

Vizcaino

Pittsburgh

Acevedo

 

St. Louis

Isringhausen

Tavarez/Eldred

Atlanta

Smoltz

Cunnane

Florida

Benitez

Fox

Montreal

Biddle

Ayala

New York

Looper

Weathers/Stanton

Philadelphia

Wagner

Worrell

 

Comments:

Arthur Rhodes is the new closer for Oakland and given General Manager Billy Beane’s track record you have to believe he is right, but Rhodes is 17 for 44 in save opportunities in his career. With the A’s having more arms on the way to the majors, there is a chance Rich Harden will be closing before the year is over. If Kansas City is serious about competing this year, Mike MacDougal (4.08 era, 1.50 whip ratio) could be in trouble. Jeremy Affeldt was moved to the bullpen the second half of last year due to recurring blister problems as a starter and he was dominant. Affeldt had a 2.64 era and 1.01 whip ratio after the all-star break. Shawn Chacon makes the move from starter to closer for Colorado so watch his stats closely in spring training. Rocky Biddle was just re-signed by the Montreal Expos but is still on the trading block so keep an eye on Luis Ayala as a saves candidate.  Bob Wickman and Robb Nen both return to their closer roles after missing all of last season due to surgeries. If you end up owning either one, it would be a good idea to also draft their backup in case they break down again. Detroit, Minnesota and Pittsburgh all have unsettled closer situations so watch their spring training stats to see who emerges as closer candidates. Ugueth Urbina, the closer for Florida last season is still a free agent and could impact the list above depending who he signs with.

 

5.  Do not keep closers of the future on your bench.

Continuing the theme from above, several closers will sprout up during the course of the season. For that reason alone, it is not a good idea to store closers of the future on your bench. What a mad dash it was in some keeper leagues last year as owners rushed to pickup Orber Moreno of the New York Mets after Armando Benitez was traded. Why, why, why, why I asked myself. Did anyone really think the Mets with an $80 million payroll in the media capital of the world think they would entrust 2004 to a rookie closer? I certainly hope not. Some owners were holding onto Felix Rodriguez of the San Francisco Giants thinking he would take over as the closer for Robb Nen in the next year or so. Nen goes down with an injury last season and does Rodriguez get the job? No, it goes to 36-year-old Tim Worrell. Luis Vizcaino looked like a good candidate to replace Mike DeJean for the Milwaukee Brewers once DeJean fell apart as most people expected he would. DeJean lost his job and the new closer became…Danny Kolb, who had spent parts of four consecutive season on the disabled list. Do you detect a pattern here? Relief pitchers are the most unpredictable players in fantasy baseball. Don’t waste precious reserve space on them.

 

All fantasy owners know who the stud pitchers are, but it’s the picks that you make in the later rounds that will help to determine the success or failure of your fantasy team. Hopefully some of the points I listed above will help you in your selections in building your pitching staff.